Is It an Asteroid or Meteor?

What’s the difference between an asteroid and a meteor? 

I asked myself that question this week because, in conversations about scenario planning with nonprofit leaders, people used different metaphors to explain the potential impact of the current administration’s policy decisions. Some described their dire scenarios as “the asteroid hitting us,” while others thought of meteors, earthquakes, the apocalypse, or aggressive cancer diagnoses. I suspect the difference in analogy used has more to do with our favorite disaster movies than anything else. 

More seriously, the underlying question in those conversations was how much planning one should do for those scenarios—if the asteroid hits, do you need a one-point or 10-point plan? For me, the answer is more about the emotions of the decision-making process than the technical need to plan. In the genuinely dire scenario, your action plan is typically clear—it’s just hard to accept. Your boss, board, or employees won’t like “we’d be screwed” as the final answer even if that’s the most likely reality.

Indeed, the drive to create scenario plans often stems from the need to feel like we have control over an uncertain future. As someone recently told me, “We would feel more comfortable if the plan were written down.”

Another example of emotions affecting decision-making came up in the class I taught on change management to nonprofit leaders this weekend. One of the students sees a lot of potential for her organization’s fundraising operation if leaders were willing to invest in it. The problem, in her view, is that the leaders are too focused on short-term matters. What we discussed, however, is that if the leaders are afraid of what might happen in the future, they might not even be able to think about anything beyond the next day.        

In all cases, we landed on the need to address both the technical and emotional aspects of dealing with the heightened uncertainty. There’s a place for proactively building resilience and developing backup strategies, but helping stakeholders get the feeling of “We’ve got this” is probably just as important as the details of the scenario planning. Similarly, providing enough time and space for people to express their emotions about the risks ahead is as important as time spent on problem-solving.